How to Deal With the Injury Risk in MMA Betting
MMA Betting - The big number of injuries in MMA is giving me pause this morning. It had been announced yesterday on MMAJunkie that Chris Leben's opponent Karlos Vemola brought out their UFC 155 fight due to an accident. Chris Leben will now be facing Derek Brunson at UFC 155. This is another illustration of a fighter needing to grab of the fight because of a personal injury this coming year. 2012 has been the season from the injury in MMA there appears to be a vast selection in sight. There has been many theories help with as to why UFC fighters have been getting injured frequently. Dana White says it is because the training camps are full of a lot of top guys these days. Which back in the day, the UFC fighter was the best guy in the gym and his sparring partners are not a threat to him. But with today's stacked gyms, guys are sparring along with other elite level fighters and becoming hurt.
Some fans have questioned whether the increased scrutiny of PED use in MMA is mainly responsible for fighters to curtail their steroid use, and consequently they aren't able to heal from injuries as soon as they did previously. I do believe the injury epidemic mostly is because of carelessness in the gym. Yves Edwards in addition has said that carelessness has played a task in the injury epidemic. An illustration he gives is the familiar story of two fighters sparring standup while other guys are wrestling near them, and then suddenly thing you know someone gets encounter and gets their ACL messed up.
As a sports bettor I'm not particularly considering the reason for the damage.MMA Betting I will be way more worried about the risk of betting on a fighter who makes your dream with a serious injury which i do not know about. After i place a bet I am putting my funds on the road, I'm putting my clients' money on the line (because so many of them place bets in my recommendation), and I am putting my reputation as a skilled handicapper on the line. For me, all of these factors matter, so when I convey a bet the monetary and reputational stakes are high. The last thing I would like to do is to lose myself and my clients money by betting over a fighter who, unbeknown to us, is fighting with an injury and it is only fighting at 50% of his capacity.
Knowing having a degree of certainty whether a fighter is fighting injured is hard, otherwise near impossible, for an outsider like myself to learn regularly. Fighters that individuals bet on fighting injured is definitely an unavoidable risk in this business. But there is something we are able to caused by mitigate that risk. Our scenario is comparable to banks. Banks realize that as long as they hold cash, criminals will try to rob them. But banks neither give up on the lucrative banking business, nor can they just take a nap and accept the robberies. Just as they actually do their utmost to mitigate the robbery risk, perform our very best to mitigate the injury risk.
Something we can do would be to never be too certain with regards to a fight. As I formulate during my Paths to Victory approach, we sometimes can predict a fight with near certainty. Sometimes our fighter could have two or three paths to victory while his opponent has none. In these fights, the opportunity that our fighter will win can be a near certainty, but not a certainty. A primary reason which our situation is not 100% certain, despite the fact that our opponent does not have any paths to victory, could be because of the chance which our fighter is fighting injured. The vast majority of enough time our fighter will never be fighting injured, but sometimes he could be. Realizing that no future fight result includes a 100% certain outcome, and accepting that the future is definitely unknown to a certain degree, is a sure way to deal with possible injuries. This humble acceptance that we can't predict the future for certain plays a part in our handicap. Rather than predicting a heavy favorite to win 95% to 100% of the time, I lower that estimation to never a lot more than 90%. Capping a favorite's possiblity to win at 90% discounts into our handicap and prediction the unfortunate occurrence our fighter is fighting injured. Decreasing the confidence levels inside your handicap is one way to responsibly account for the damage risk.
An additional way to mitigate the damage risk to some extent is bet totally on main card, well known, and highly covered (from the MMA media) UFC fighters. As I have said before, these are the fighters i usually bet on that are the fighters that make up my circle of competence. Betting on these popular and highly covered fighters is helpful for just two reasons. The very first reason is always that these popular established UFC fighters are more financially secure compared to lesser known undercard fighters. Some guy like Georges St-Pierre is not going to fight injured. He's got huge amount of money staying with you and he is not going to put himself into a dangerous situation by fighting injured so he can get yourself a paycheck. You will find exceptions for this theory though. Sometimes popular and financially-OK guys will fight with serious injuries. We saw this with Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos within their first fight. Both guys showed up for the fight with serious knee injuries. Both of them probably fought because they are not merely the top level, and also the only fight shown on the first UFC on FOX show. And Anderson Silva fought Chael Sonnen having a serious rib injury within their first fight. But generally, the higher known and more financially secure main card guys are less inclined to fight injured to acquire a paycheck. MMA Betting
The second reason why betting solely around the main card and known UFC guys helps mitigate the damage risk is they are covered more intensely through the MMA media. For many undercard fights, there will probably 't be one story done on them. In fact there is a great deal of press coverage for that well-known UFC fighters' fights. This press coverage is information. And sometimes that information informs you that the fighter could be injured. It's not as clear as a possible MMA news website letting you know that the fighter is injured. It is grayer . You need to ingest as much information that you can to see if you can put the items of the puzzle together. Let's consider a good example.
When Cain Velasquez fought Junior Dos Santos in their first fight I knew there was probably a problem with Cain starting that fight, and I avoided betting on him. How did I know? I took multiple bits of the puzzle, position them together, and came away with a mosaic of knowledge that told me something was not right. I'd seen a training video of Cain and his awesome trainer talking about how difficult his comeback from two shoulder surgeries have been. In Cain's recovery in the surgeries he had not been permitted to raise his pulse to get a significant time period, something like about six weeks or 2 to 3 months. He could not even walk over a treadmill or ride an immobile bike. Cain's cardio training was effectively set back to zero. Then in the weigh-ins Cain showed up looking markedly fatter and softer than he ever had before. Tying the above information together informed me that something had not been right with Cain. I didnrrrt realize that he previously an injury for certain, and I would never know that his knee was injured. However i were built with a feeling more and more often absolutely nothing Cain probably had an accident getting into this fight and the man was not able to fight. And I stayed away from even considering betting on him.
Piecing the knowledge puzzle together is not an monochrome quantitative game. This is a gray and qualitative game. However with the proper detached and logical temperament, an experienced handicapper can play the information game and help mitigate the risk of betting by using an injured fighter. As well as the facts are supplied by the MMA media, who subsequently is a lot more likely to cover the well known main card fighters. Thus betting about the also known main card fighters rather than the less popular undercard fighters is another way to help lower the potential risk of betting by using an injured fighter.
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